Risks of violent conflict will rise as the green transition picks up speed - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
气候变化

Risks of violent conflict will rise as the green transition picks up speed

Governments should ensure that expanded use of renewable technologies goes hand in hand with peacebuilding
00:00
{"text":[[{"start":10.01,"text":"The writer is executive director of the Berghof Foundation and author of ‘The Burning Question: Climate and Conflict’ "}],[{"start":16.97,"text":"Climate change exacerbates conflict, something that will only increase as temperatures continue to rise. "},{"start":22.698999999999998,"text":"But our responses to climate change, via the energy transition, can also generate conflict, and in ways we haven’t yet begun to address. "}],[{"start":31.31,"text":"Such violence as was seen during the gilets jaunes protests in France in 2018 was mild. "},{"start":36.802,"text":"But the drive to net zero, the green transition and climate change are now weaponised as a ‘wedge issue’ in culture wars by conservative and far-right parties opposed to greener policies. "},{"start":46.107,"text":"Radicalism on both sides may deepen and even turn violent. "}],[{"start":50.57,"text":"Whatever happens in western Europe and North America will almost certainly be dwarfed by outcomes in countries like Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. "},{"start":58.362,"text":"Already deeply affected by climate change and conflict, their economies are dominated by fossil fuels (over 89 per cent of exports in all three) that are contributing to the environmental crisis, as well as to domestic corruption and violence. "}],[{"start":72.23,"text":"The countries hit hardest by the energy transition will be those whose budgets currently rely on oil revenues to provide basic services, jobs, subsidies and security for their populations. "},{"start":82.497,"text":"The fracturing of that social contract and the consequent deprivation will probably result in rebellion, intercommunal conflict and accelerated recruitment into extremist armed groups such as Boko Haram, al-Qaeda and Islamic State — as well as violent repression by governments in response. "}],[{"start":97.94,"text":"The transition from fossil fuels is expected to cause conflict in other ways. "},{"start":102.557,"text":"There is growing evidence that regions mining and exporting minerals that are essential for renewable technologies will face the same “resource curse” that many oil producers are used to. "}],[{"start":112.02,"text":"The Democratic Republic of Congo, which has experienced waves of violence for decades, has 70 per cent of the world’s reserves of cobalt and the seventh largest reserves of copper — both essential for batteries. "},{"start":122.92399999999999,"text":"Armed groups fight over control of the mines and use the revenues to prolong conflict, while the mining is often carried out under brutal conditions. "},{"start":130.22899999999998,"text":"As demand from the green transition raises their value over the long term, so will incentives increase to fight over control of these “conflict renewables”. "}],[{"start":139.12,"text":"Many other countries fear they will also suffer higher levels of conflict as the energy transition gathers pace. "},{"start":145.162,"text":"What might be done to head off this under-appreciated threat? "}],[{"start":148.61,"text":"First, there needs to be a more rigorous assessment of conflict risks when investing in renewable and rechargeable energy. "},{"start":155.21400000000003,"text":"“Sustainability” needs to apply not just to the production or storage of energy, but also to the rights of the affected communities. "},{"start":161.69400000000002,"text":"Companies and governments both have a role to play here in ensuring their supply chains do not foster abuses and conflict. "}],[{"start":168.70000000000002,"text":"For countries reliant on oil, diversification of their economies and revenue base is essential. "},{"start":174.29200000000003,"text":"The Gulf’s richer states use their sovereign funds for this purpose, but less fortunate countries also need investment. "},{"start":180.234,"text":"Renewable energies can reduce the centralisation, monopoly and weaponisation associated with fossil fuels, as seen in Russia. "},{"start":187.41400000000002,"text":"Solar, wind and hydropower can be generated in almost every country in ways that are decentralised, small-scale and relatively cheap, which make them less useful for belligerents. "}],[{"start":197.34000000000003,"text":"In Somalia and Mali, UN peace missions have invested in off-grid solar power to reduce dependence on diesel generators, emissions and the ability of armed groups to manipulate control of fuel supplies. "},{"start":208.26900000000003,"text":"Such initiatives can also create economic and peacebuilding opportunities for local communities. "},{"start":213.23700000000002,"text":"As a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests, bridging renewable technologies and peacebuilding may unlock “an under-appreciated tool for limiting conflict and maintaining peaceful societies”. "}],[{"start":224.59000000000003,"text":"While the vast scale of the green transition presents varied challenges to different countries, all face increased risks of conflict. "},{"start":231.53200000000004,"text":"Developed economies need to show voters more convincingly the benefits of climate action, such as improved healthcare and infrastructure, to combat the narrative that net zero is “elitist” and “woke”. "},{"start":241.43700000000004,"text":"Oil-dependent states have to diversify their economies urgently with help from outside actors. "},{"start":246.44200000000004,"text":"And countries in neither of those categories but undergoing civil conflict need help in maximising the potential of renewables to contribute to peacebuilding. "}],[{"start":255.12000000000003,"text":"It is imperative to avoid tackling climate change in ways that unwittingly increase risks of violent conflict. "},{"start":261.28700000000003,"text":"But that’s where we are headed unless every aspect of the transition is guided by more conflict-sensitive approaches. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

Climate Capital

\"\"

Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore the FT’s coverage here.

Are you curious about the FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Find out more about our science-based targets here

"}],[{"start":266.97,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/163328-1721100806.mp3"}
版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

Lex专栏:亚洲将遭遇“特朗普交易”的冲击

汽车行业保护主义抬头的定价过程才刚刚开始。

马斯克对特朗普的押注得到了回报

特斯拉和X的首席执行官将成为特朗普总统身边最具影响力的政治和商业顾问之一。

巴尼耶削减养老金的计划触动了法国人的神经

法国总理的这一省钱提案遭到反对,尽管人们呼吁加强代际公平。

英国学费上涨对学生和大学财务状况的影响

专家称,这些措施不足以解决高等教育经费问题或吸引来自贫困家庭的学生。

这次美国大选对美国企业意味着什么?

大选结果将对能源、汽车和制药等领域的企业产生重大影响。

德国的商业模式失败了吗?

德国三大主要产业同时陷入低迷,经济也停滞不前。政客们终于清醒过来了吗?
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×