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The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy
作者是剑桥大学王后学院(Queens’ College, Cambridge)的校长，并担任安联保险和格拉梅西基金管理公司的顾问
National security experts and financial market traders seem to disagree on what will follow the recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel. The question of who turns out to be correct will have significant consequences not only for an already unstable Middle East but also for the wellbeing of the global economy and the stability of its financial system.
国家安全专家和金融市场交易员对伊朗和以色列最近紧张局势升级后的走向似乎持有不同的观点。这个问题的答案不仅将对已经不稳定的中东地区产生重大影响，也将对全球经济的福祉和金融体系的稳定产生深远的影响。
The notion of a “new Middle East” has often come up in the national security camp’s characterisation of what has transpired following Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria at the start of this month.
在本月初以色列对伊朗在叙利亚的领事馆发动攻击后，国家安全阵营在描述事态发展时，经常会提及“新中东”的概念。
Specifically, multiple lines have been crossed by both parties. For the first time in history, the two countries have attacked each other directly rather than through the use of proxies and targets in third countries. Iran has directed a once-unthinkably large number of missiles and drones at Israel, responding to the Israeli attack in Damascus that killed a number of Iranian senior officials. Friday’s Israeli retaliation came on the heels of an explicit warning from Iran’s foreign minister that it would immediately respond should it be attacked directly.
具体来说，双方都已经越过了多条底线。这是两国历史上首次直接对彼此发动攻击，而非通过在第三国的代理人和目标进行。伊朗向以色列发射了前所未有的大量导弹和无人机，这是对以色列在大马士革发动的袭击的回应，该袭击导致多名伊朗高级官员丧生。在以色列周五的报复行动之前，伊朗的外交部长已经明确警告，如果遭到直接攻击，伊朗将立即做出反应。
Despite all this, the markets’ reaction has been relatively tame and contained. Rather than price the market implications of a durable escalation in geopolitical threats and a fatter tail risk of substantially higher oil prices for long, traders have been quick to fade the initial moves in many asset prices.
尽管如此，市场的反应仍然相对平静和有节制。交易员们并没有将地缘政治威胁的持续升级和油价大幅上涨的长期风险的市场影响定价过高，而是迅速淡化了许多资产价格的初步波动。
This includes oil, by far the most sensitive international price, which is today well below where it closed before Iran first retaliated for Israel’s consulate attack. These prices have also failed to maintain their initial move up on the latest news of Israel’s response.
其中包括迄今为止最敏感的国际油价，今天的油价远远低于伊朗首次对以色列领事馆袭击进行报复前的收盘价。这些价格也未能保持最初因以色列做出回应的最新消息而上涨的势头。
This contrast in market vs expert views could have consequences well beyond regional stability. It relates directly to four themes that the IMF identified this week as important for global economic wellbeing and financial stability: insufficient growth, sticky inflation, the lack of policy flexibility and the pressures associated with greater international divergence in economic outcomes and policy setting.
市场与专家观点的这种对比可能会对地区稳定产生远超预期的影响。这直接关联到国际货币基金组织(IMF)本周确定的四个对全球经济福祉和金融稳定至关重要的主题：增长不足、顽固的通胀、政策灵活性不足，以及由于经济结果和政策设定的国际分歧加剧所带来的压力。
While the global economy is able to handle a transitory bump, it is already too fragile to handle a large new economic shock. Specifically, a further round of military escalation between Iran and Israel would undermine already low and fragile global growth, push up goods inflation at a time when services inflation is still too high, and impose demands on fiscal and monetary authorities that have already used up much of their policy flexibility and have limited operating space.
虽然全球经济有能力应对短暂的颠簸，但它已经过于脆弱，无法应对新的巨大经济冲击。具体来说，伊朗和以色列之间的进一步军事升级将削弱已经低迷且脆弱的全球增长，推高商品通胀，而此时服务业通胀仍然过高，并对已经耗尽大部分政策灵活性且操作空间有限的财政和货币当局施加压力。
Meanwhile, the distribution of this stagflationary shock would amplify the economic and financial divergences that are already imposing some stress on the global order.
与此同时，这种滞胀冲击的分布将放大经济和金融分歧，而这些分歧已经给全球秩序带来了一些压力。
First, two of the potential engines of global growth — the already-stressed Chinese and European economies — would be hit relatively hard given their high dependence on imported energy.
首先，全球增长的两个潜在动力源——已经压力重重的中国和欧洲经济——将受到相对较大的冲击，因为它们高度依赖进口能源。
Second, US inflation would prove even more stubborn at a time when progress in reducing price pressures has already disappointed this year, thereby acting as a bigger counter to early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
其次，美国的通胀问题可能会变得更加顽固，尤其是在今年降低价格压力的进展已经令人失望的情况下，这将对美联储提前降息产生更大的阻力。
Third, the strong dollar would get a further appreciation boost, undermining trade and financial intermediation.
第三，强势美元将进一步升值，从而对贸易和金融中介产生负面影响。
And finally, with worsening economic and geopolitical situations, risk premia would increase. This would lead to higher borrowing costs than might have prevailed otherwise.
最后，随着经济和地缘政治局势的恶化，风险溢价将会上升。这将导致借款成本高于原本可能的水平。
Such considerations assume greater urgency when factoring in what did not happen in the most recent tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel.
当考虑到在伊朗和以色列最近的针锋相对中未发生的事情时，这些考虑因素显得更加紧迫。
Whether by design or otherwise, neither party has inflicted considerable human and physical damage on the other. Also, Iran did not materially deploy its regional proxies in what could easily have been a more comprehensive attack on Israel. Meanwhile, Israel did not go after Iranian nuclear sites in its response. It also did not succumb to pressure from its closest allies, most notably the US and UK, for a greater degree of restraint and de-escalation.
无论是有意设计还是其他原因，双方都没有对对方造成重大的人员和物质损害。此外，伊朗并未实质性地动用其地区代理人，这本可以轻易地对以色列发动更全面的攻击。同时，以色列在回应中并未针对伊朗的核设施。以色列也没有屈服于其最亲密盟友，特别是美国和英国，对其要求更大程度的克制和降级的压力。
All this points to a significant shift in the dynamic between these two countries, Most importantly, this has changed from a relatively stable disequilibrium, in which each party refrained from direct attacks, to a more unpredictable and unstable disequilibrium in which dangerous precedents have been set and each side has more reasons to escalate tensions further.
所有这些都表明这两个国家之间的关系动态发生了重大转变。最关键的是，这种关系已经从一个相对稳定的不平衡状态转变为一个更加不可预测且不稳定的不平衡状态，其中已经设立了危险的先例，每一方都有更多的理由进一步升级紧张局势。
When comparing the reaction of markets to the views of most national security experts, I am reminded of the story of the frog in boiling water.
当我将市场的反应与大多数国家安全专家的观点进行比较时，我想起了“温水煮青蛙”的故事。
There is no doubt that the latest round of Iran-Israel hostilities has crossed many lines and durably raised the geopolitical temperature in the region. Yet markets seem keen to brush this aside, comforted by the fact that we are yet to reach the boiling point of significant human casualties and physical damage in these retaliation rounds — a point that would cause significant economic and financial dislocations. Given that this is a region that is vulnerable to errors of judgment, insufficient understanding of adversaries, and implementation accidents, that could well prove too complacent a reaction.
毫无疑问，伊朗和以色列最新一轮的冲突已经突破了许多界限，并在该地区持久地升高了地缘政治温度。然而，市场似乎倾向于忽视这一点，因为我们尚未达到在这些报复行动中造成重大人员伤亡和实质性物质损失的临界点，这将导致重大的经济和金融混乱。考虑到这是一个容易出现判断失误、对对手理解不足和实施事故的地区，这种反应可能过于乐观。
