Does Africa need its own credit rating agency? - FT中文网
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非洲经济

Does Africa need its own credit rating agency?

A pan-continental body is not a cure-all for its debt problems
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":8.5,"text":"Africa’s debt problems were high on the agenda at last week’s IMF-World Bank meetings. "},{"start":13.642,"text":"Around 20 low-income African nations are either bankrupt or at high risk of debt distress. "},{"start":18.334,"text":"And across the continent, high interest rates, soaring inflation and sluggish economies have made post-pandemic debt piles harder to shrink. "}],[{"start":26.77,"text":"Regional policymakers reckon an “Africa premium” is also to blame. "},{"start":30.912,"text":"This, they say, is the additional cost nations face when raising finance, simply for being African. "},{"start":37.254,"text":"They argue it stems from bias and inaccuracy in the credit scores given by the “Big Three” American credit rating agencies, S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch — which account for 95 per cent of the global ratings market. "}],[{"start":49.25,"text":"In recent years, African finance ministers have increasingly voiced concerns over their credit ratings, and have called for the creation of the continent’s own scoring institution. "},{"start":58.417,"text":"Just this week, regional experts are meeting in Nairobi to discuss how to improve credit assessments across the continent. "},{"start":64.597,"text":"The African Union expects an African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) — which has been in the works since 2022 — to launch next year. "}],[{"start":73.07,"text":"African nations do tend to have a higher cost of capital relative to peers with similar economic profiles. "},{"start":79.02399999999999,"text":"But it is hard to ascertain how much of this premium might reflect misguided perceptions, or realities around idiosyncratic political risks and structural economic challenges. "},{"start":87.979,"text":"Rating agencies also argue that they apply the same, rigorous debt sustainability framework to all sovereigns, whether in Africa or not. "}],[{"start":96.38,"text":"That does not mean the complaints of Africa’s policymakers are baseless. "},{"start":100.347,"text":"Credit ratings are not an exact science, and the Big Three have quickly reversed credit opinions in the past. "},{"start":105.85199999999999,"text":"Rating agencies combine economic analysis — using metrics such as economic growth, debt ratios, and foreign reserves — with a qualitative assessment of policies, institutions, and political and geopolitical dynamics. "},{"start":118.494,"text":"All of these may have an impact on creditworthiness. "},{"start":121.262,"text":"But the quality and reliability of Africa’s national statistics is poor. "},{"start":125.37899999999999,"text":"The Big Three agencies also have limited on-the-ground presence in the continent, which raises doubt over their ability to conduct holistic assessments. "}],[{"start":133.70999999999998,"text":"This means that even if there is no systemic bias against African nations, there could still be flaws in their rating methodologies. "},{"start":140.58899999999997,"text":"Last year, the UN Development Programme estimated that African nations could save up to $75bn in excess interest payments and forgone lending if the agencies based scores on a more “objective” credit model. "}],[{"start":152.67999999999998,"text":"An Africa-led credit rating agency is no panacea, however. "},{"start":156.884,"text":"First, poor governance, a lack of market depth, and complications in restructuring loans are the main culprits for the continent’s indebtedness. "},{"start":164.62699999999998,"text":"The Big Three can be easy scapegoats. "},{"start":166.99399999999997,"text":"Second, a nation’s ability to repay its debts depends on more than economic models. "},{"start":171.93699999999998,"text":"That means judgments on issues like political dynamics are always necessary. "},{"start":176.14199999999997,"text":"AfCRA may lack credibility with investors if it is seen as too favourable to local debtors. "},{"start":181.647,"text":"Building trust will be crucial, given that most capital comes from outside the continent. "}],[{"start":186.64999999999998,"text":"There could be merit in AfCRA if it was refocused to raise regional data quality and share analysis with the established agencies. "},{"start":194.01699999999997,"text":"The Big Three would also be wise to raise their presence in the fast-growing, young continent which is garnering more investor interest. "},{"start":200.72199999999998,"text":"Africa faces an enormous investment gap to tackle climate change and boost productivity, which means fair and accurate financing costs are essential. "}],[{"start":209.49999999999997,"text":"Even if the assessment of Africa’s credit ratings can become more granular, the biggest drivers of its high borrowing costs will still remain. "},{"start":216.79199999999997,"text":"Regional finance ministers should not be distracted from important, but difficult, public finance reforms. "},{"start":222.83399999999997,"text":"These include improving tax collection and phasing out wasteful subsidies. "},{"start":226.85199999999998,"text":"Multilateral debt restructuring efforts must also continue. "},{"start":230.36899999999997,"text":"Indeed, it will take a lot more than Africa’s own credit rating agency to turn the continent’s cash flow problems around. "}],[{"start":236.60999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftmailbox.cn/album/177989-1730259003.mp3"}

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