US Treasuries: Fed cannot count on Asian investors forever - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
FT商学院

US Treasuries: Fed cannot count on Asian investors forever

Rise of haven currency amid higher rates and a European war is casting a long shadow

King Dollar is back on its throne. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six other important currencies, is near its 20-year high. The rise of the haven currency amid higher rates, a European war and global shortages is casting a long shadow. 

For companies with revenues overseas, the headache is the hit to earnings. The impact on the $23tn US Treasury market is a real, though less obvious, snag. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar has gained more than 18 per cent since late September. The yen’s fall against the buck risks cutting Japanese demand for US government debt.

As the dollar rises, foreign investors have to pay more for currency hedges, which cuts into their returns. Although the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly hit 2.97 per cent this month, the yield in effect falls to just 1.32 per cent once you factor in yen-dollar hedging costs. These now stand at 1.65 percentage points, a two-year high.

Japanese institutions sold a hefty $74bn of Treasuries in March, according to data released last week. While the Asian country remains the largest foreign holder of US government bonds, its $1.23tn holding is at its lowest level since January 2020. 

The sell-off may have been exacerbated by Japanese money managers booking profits for the fiscal year, which ends in March. Even so, the fall is 2.5 times greater than the largest previous sale by Japanese investors in a single month, according to TD Securities.

China, the second-largest overseas holder of Treasuries, also reduced its holdings for the fourth consecutive month in March. Since November, it has sold more than $41bn of US government debt.

Sustained selling would be a problem for the Federal Reserve. The US central bank is counting on foreign investors to help absorb the increased supply of Treasuries that is coming on to the market as it ends its pandemic-era bond-buying programme. Fed boss Jay Powell will just have to hope that steeper yields and the dollar’s haven appeal will outweigh higher hedging costs.

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

造就埃隆•马斯克的神话

这位科技亿万富翁对唐纳德•特朗普的支持是其世界观的一部分,这种世界观来自硅谷最狂野的边界。

投资者警告称,强势美元将冲击新兴市场债券

新兴市场债务基金遭遇资金外流,因为发展中国家降息的希望破灭。

吉赛尔•佩利科,震惊法国的审判的核心人物

在法庭审理她如何被丈夫下药并被陌生人强奸时,她表现出了非凡的力量。

安东尼奥•科斯塔:“特朗普为什么要与欧洲打贸易战?”

欧洲理事会新任主席谈跨越政治分歧开展业务、面对腐败调查,以及为什么欧洲在危机中能发挥最大作用。

来自罗马的明信片:向好莱坞明星展示永恒之城秘密的“角斗士导游”

历史学家亚历山大•马里奥蒂是《角斗士II》的顾问,他兼职为汤姆•克鲁斯、比尔•盖茨和罗素•克劳做向导。

海上石油又回来了,但代价是什么?

在发生了历史上最严重的泄漏事故多年之后,公司为了寻找新的发现,正在钻探更深的海底钻井。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×